emperors IV

Hmm. Where to begin? They make it seem as if the 1st quarter fund-raising numbers are the most important thing since the idea of voting rights. Two nuggets to keep in mind, and they are all we need to know so we can stop listening or caring about the dollars: Mitt Romney raised something like $20+ million and is standing at single digits in the polling numbers for the nomination; Hillary led the money derby and is rapidly losing ground. Money does not equal success, especially with at least a million days before anything really matters. It will keep you running in the race but it won’t directly translate to success.

Fred Thompson is not in the race and he’s around 15% in a lot of the polls. The Republicans are just a wee bit dysfunctional right now.

Tommy Thompson is in the race. Did you know that? Maybe he’s banking on garnering the “Thompson” vote if people get confused – it could happen. His voter recognition is actually nil.

I’m very confused on what to do with the numbers. I still don’t think Giuliani can win the nomination regardless of what the polls say: he has absolutely nothing that the Republican base wants. McCain is slipping more each week. As far as his leadership is concerned, I’m very worried. In a front page article in the Sunday NYTimes he says that he has no “Plan B” for Iraq. What? If the current plan is all he can possibly envision, then he’s done. Romney is dead in the water even with all that dough. We’ve got one Thompson but not the other. I’m lowering my available poll points by half and only running the numbers to 50% total until someone steps up (or in) and takes charge.

The Dems are boring me. Hillary is clinging by her fingernails to Obama’s suit. It’s clear that the Dem voters never were on board with her and she’s got little chance of holding on much longer – though she’ll run through the primaries. I suspect the real mudslinging by her campaign will kickoff in full force by Memorial Day. Richardson had some press while he was in N. Korea a few weeks back but he’s still taking this campaign slow and steady. He’s still my guy. Edwards got some traction a few weeks ago but is spending more time with photo ops than actual campaigning. I still don’t see him going on much longer and my numbers reflect that.

There was a letter to Andrew Sullivan’s blog a few months back that outlined an idea (and it was very well put) that Jeb Bush might just hold out, let the candidates kill each other or implode, and step in late to scoop the nomination with very little long-term review of his politics. Name recognition and money – doesn’t sound so crazy right now.

Democrats	My Vote	The Nation
Clinton	25	30
Obama	33	30
Richardson	40	10
Edwards	2	15
Dodd	0	2
Biden	0	3
Kucinich	0	1

'Publicans	My Vote	The Nation
McCain	20	40
Giuliani	15	30
Romney	5	10
Brownback	0	0
Hunter	0	0
Thompson (either)	10	20

Unless something very intriguing happens in the next few weeks I'm dropping Kucinich, Dodd, Biden, Hunter, and Brownback from the numbers. I apologize (?) for never including Huckabee's candidacy; it wasn't that I didn't know, I just didn't care.

T.