the paddle: emperors V

Right on man! Two debates hosted by MSNBC are history, one for the ‘Pubs and one for the Dems, and we’ve got exactly zero serious issues to discuss. I’m sure the next two hosted by Fox will be scintillating; imagine the gratuitous sex and patriotic overtones…it IS Fox after all. As promised I’m dropping Kucinich, Dodd, Biden, Hunter, and Brownback from the numbers. Those that never made a dent (Huckabee, crazy guy from Alaska, Tommy Thompson, etc.) can rest easy knowing that my political opinions won’t be levied upon them.

First the Dems, or as I call them “Hillary, Barrack, Rudy Giuliani, et al.” I sense that Bill Clinton is teetering on the threshold of hitting the trail for Hillary and he’ll make a huge difference, one way or t'other. She’s struggling into the Summer with nothing of interest to get on about. In fact, the entire group of would-be candidates is realizing the early jump into the race is making for long slogging through hot weather while most of us don’t care. Old Bill will get both the Democrat and Republican troops whipped up in a tizzy. I was trying to sort the odds of Obama and Clinton standing next to each other, right in the center, for the televised debate a few weeks back. MSNBC says the positioning was based on a random draw. Nine candidates, drawn randomly, and this is what happens? Are there any mathematicians out there? Richardson apparently didn’t come off so well on TV which is the kiss-of-death over the last 50 years. Hopefully his performance will be better over the next few debates. His commercials are funny, nonetheless. The numbers don’t change much; I still think Richardson will make up some ground, Hillary and Obama are a dead-heat, and I’m still betting Edwards doesn’t make it to the primaries even though I think he’s making up ground.

Fred Thompson is still not in the race. And now for the Republicans. There is not an electable candidate in this field. Fred Thompson is not the answer. No one knows anything about Fred Thompson yet he’s polling crazy numbers because the rest of the field is such carrion. Giuliani has finally played peek-a-boo with his left-wing tendencies so the forthcoming correction, fomented by Conservatives, in the polls won’t be a surprise. I can’t make heads-or-tails of McCain even if I think he is the only possible nominee currently on the campaign trail. I would say that Romney is free-falling but one can’t freefall from the dizzying height of 5% in the polls. I’m still only adding their numbers to 50% due to struggling candidates – and I’m putting the kibosh on Giuliani’s numbers, finally.

And now for my big prediction: We don’t have the complete field. The whole Bloomberg/Hagel talk isn’t worth the time spent on it, but I do believe Hagel will enter the race. Fred Thompson might enter. I still think we’ll see at least one more surprise before Labor Day, especially as the current crop falters through the Summer. I don’t have any Dems in mind but I wouldn’t rule it out just yet. What we have is a huge list of Senators and not much gubernatorial representation – this is going to be a wild ride come Fall. If you actually believe that money will be the sole factor then just remember Fred Thompson: no ads, not running, who knows what money he has, and he’s garnered 15% in the polls. This could actually end up being a nominating process that comes down purely to hype and not money. I’d save the money for the general election. And a little teaser for us to ponder: Schwarzenegger. He’ll have served almost a full-term (half of Grey Davis’, half of his) by the end of 2008. Would he be tempted to head to Washington D.C. as someone’s SecDef or other cabinet member? Interesting. Discuss.

Fred Thompson sets a record for number of references in one entry. Who needs money?