i shot a man....

During my rounds of Reno and greater Northern Nevada the whole real estate crisis become oh so clear. I'll get to that is a few minutes.

Here is the oath that every commissioned officer takes upon entering the military, I've added in a name for clarity:

"I, Ricardo S. Sanchez, do solemnly swear, (or affirm), that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God." (Note that the last sentence is not required to be said if the speaker has a personal or moral objection)

Seems clear enough, doesn’t it? The oath of enlistment is a bit different in that there’s allegiance to the President, the Uniform Code of Military Justice, and the officers appointed over us/them/we. I only took it four times. Anyway, there are tons of people out there, Mr. Sanchez and various other retired generals, who apparently believe that stars on their shoulders, political expediency, and marching behind a President was part of their job description. It's either that, or he was too afraid to make a stand and tell the truth - I've no idea which is worse. He was no doubt afraid they'd treat him as that did Eric Shinseki when he testified by telling the truth. Somewhere in his mind he thinks that his belated confession (and future book) will somehow exonerate him from responsibility; even greater reason to doubt his sanity. I sure hope Sanchez sleeps well at night. Well done, General - keep up with the Japanese spiritual quotes.

On to Reno. When I moved there in 2003 the entire area was busting at the seams - real estate prices skyrocketing along with a severe housing shortage even with the eye-popping building of endless subdivisions. All of Nevada led the early 2000s boom, at least two or three years ahead of the rest of the country, and I got in just as things began to fever pitch. When I put my house on the market in the spring of 2005 I was about two months too late. It sat empty for a year and I had to lower the asking price by $40,000 and pay the buyer's closing costs just to sell - but I got out just in time. That was summer of 2006 and the market is far worse now than it was then. The city of Fernley is swapped with empty homes for sale and rent. Prices have plummeted – 2400 sq. ft homes are now selling for the 2006 price of my 1500 sq. ft house. Downtown Reno has empty condos and townhomes in beautiful new buildings on the river. It’s ugly. My real estate prediction is this: Reno is at least a year away from riding out the problem. Consider the collapse as starting in spring 2005 and I can see it will last until at least the fall of 2008: count that as a run of 3 ½ years. For the rest of the country; it didn’t get real bad until spring/summer 2007 so the end will be nearer the end of 2010. Those are the facts on the ground – don’t believe anything you read from economists and real estate associations.

Such light discussion today.

I’ll get off my rantings and railings…

T.