at the buzzer

While I was watching Game 7 of the NBA Finals, where the Lakers came back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Celtics, a few light bulbs flashed. The first was this, “Why am I watching an NBA game?” The second was “How come there’s only one really good player on the court?” Lastly, the coup de grace: if you’re making a push to comeback in a free flow sport (basketball, tennis, hockey, etc.) you better get over the hump the first time or you’re finished; the expended energy leaves nothing for a second run. And for the lead defender, you simply need to keep the top of the mountain free from challenge. In Game 7 you could see both sides of the battle with the Lakers clearly having the bit between their teeth and the Celtics defending the summit; it was enthralling stuff to watch. The Celtics are considerably older than the Lakers and throughout the fourth quarter you just knew that if they could survive the rush, and not fall behind by even 3 or 4 points, then they’d win. As the Lakers got within a few points, tied it a few times, and the Celtics fought back, it looked like they’d win the title. But, alas, the Lakers put their nose ahead by 3 or 4 and you knew the game was over: The Lakers had cleared the summit. If they’d been unable to put that small distance between themselves and the C’s then everything would have still been in play. This is a VERY long back story, I know, but the point is that you get one shot: over or you’re out.

What I realized this morning, after watching some interviews from the big rally in D.C. over the weekend, was this: The Republican party is trying to summit and they’re gambling on getting over-the-top in one push. That idea is a perfectly considered strategy if their current compromises weren’t taken into account. The compromise is twofold: the crop of tea party candidates and the pandering of the ‘moderate’ candidates in order to survive a challenge. What’s happened so far is that the party is putting forward (and the voters are supporting it) tea party candidates for the general election and we don’t really know how they’ll fare against Democrats or Independents when the voting public pulls the lever. All of these ‘upsets’ so far have been Republicans losing to Republicans.

The mid-terms will give the Republicans/Tea Party a significant increase in seats in Congress. Since the Civil War there are only three instances of the mid-term elections not taking seats from the President’s party: FDR in 1934, Clinton in 1998, and Bush in 2002. Add in that the country is quite split right now and there may be a bigger swing than normal. But, that swing won’t be 40 seats in the house. Same with the Senate – only twice has a swing of double digits been seen and that’s what would have to happen this year. It’ll be close in the end but voters across the board will probably give us the Dems with 52 seats in the Senate, plus two independents, and something like 225 to keep control of the House. I don’t want to see those seats lost but it’s the nature of the beast. At the same time, let’s go back to Game 7 of the NBA Finals and add in another damning fact.

If the Republicans don’t gain control of either end of the capitol, or both, then they’ll spend even more years in the wilderness. This is the one push they get and if they only get close, but don’t get a nose in front, then not only will they have to battle an Obama reelection campaign in 2012 they’ll have to fight their own past. Imagine they find themselves short in numbers after this election and a good number of those seats are filled by incumbent tea party members come 2012. How do you address that election? The party is going to need to rid themselves of the extreme incumbents they elected in this desperate 2010 election season whilst trying to also battle another massive surge of Democratic campaigning. Getting even this year will not be enough to prevent a slaughter in 2012 and I don’t see them getting there in two months time. It is the long view, isn’t it?

52 and 225. Mark it.

Up next, music clouds.

chalk talk

Roland Martin has a column at CNN.com on the Howard Dean 50 State Plan that’s been driven home during the Obama campaign. I was talking with my gal the other week about the how the plan was getting some blowback after Obama decided to close down operations in a few states that were clearly unturnable. They made a decision, maybe based on a timeline, that resources that were poised to pounce, if needed, could be used elsewhere. Had there been a need to defend, he could have done it. Everyone got on with yelling and screaming that Obama never intended to run in all 50 states and it was just blah blah blah blah. I think it’s important to remember that Obama wasn’t the candidate – let alone the leading candidate or nominee – back in 2006 when Howard Dean put this plan into play. The idea behind it was to have a ground presence in all 50 states so that as the campaign revved up the Democratic nominee would have the ability to ramp up pre-existing operations into something that could attempt to win a state or defend it, if necessary. As this General Election has unfolded, what Dean imagined has come full circle as Obama is attacking and turning states that voted Republican in 2000 and 2004 while still having volunteers on the ground in the Democratic states he needed to hold. As the new battleground states have begun to turn (Virginia, N.M., Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, etc.) the McCain campaign has been forced to play nothing but defense with no organization in-place to defend that territory. The idea, back in ’06, that Virginia might be in play this year probably seemed so distant to the GOP that they put forth little or no effort to establish any foothold in the Commonwealth. By the time McCain realized there was trouble brewing he opened up the "GOP bag of good planning” and saw it was nothing but air and dust. As of July this year Obama already had 20 offices in Virginia while McCain had just opened his third. By August, Obama had 33 offices in Virginia while McCain was waiting to open up some offices around Labor Day. The same thing is happening in the other states where the GOP is struggling to find a ground game while everything crumbles around them. I don’t know that Howard Dean is a genius as much as he’s observant of the state of affairs: what political mind wouldn’t have looked at the electoral maps from 2000 and 2004 and realized that in order to succeed in such a perfectly divided environment you’d need to move hard into the dozen or so states perched right in the middle? What the plan enacted was a methodical course that took states like Ohio and Florida out of the mix because a combination of Virginia (already turning with Dem governors and Senators), N.M., Minnesota, Iowa, and Indiana would secure a victory without relying on the big states in a winner-take-all-but-only-one-state counts result. If you look at whatever consolidated tracking map you rely on, you’ll see that as of today Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia are all in the leaning Obama column. That’s 109 electoral votes that Bush carried in 2000 and 2004 (and doesn’t include the now Obama-blue Iowa that Bush carried). Not one single Kerry state from 2004 is anywhere near the McCain column. As it stands right now, by counting only the solid states (defined as a lead greater than double digits) for both candidates, Obama is covered for 259 of the 270 needed to win and McCain for 127 of the 270 needed. What this plan has given us is a chance to win in so many states that seemed unreachable by old-time political (read: GOP) standards that all I want is Virginia to go blue and the rest (Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Colorado, and Ohio) can go to McCain and it won’t matter one bit. What this plan has brought about is a new type of campaigning that will carry forward over the next decade. Think about the Republican lead in Texas dropping by 10% in this cycle: Kansas down 13%, Alaska down 10%, Mississippi down 10%, Montana down almost 20%. Those states are now on the table for 2010, 2012, and beyond. Even though the ground game isn’t strong there any longer – it was, and it put a huge dent in some GOP luxury states.

For those that harp on the Obama campaign as being some sort of crazy group of kids, all you need to do is walk into an Obama office and see the huge breadth of people volunteering to beat the pavement, make calls, and support in any way possible. It’s an amazingly positive and powerful cross-section of the American population. A good portion of this process would have occurred whether Clinton or Obama were the nominee and that’s as important for the party as winning this election. I certainly would have spent the same amount of time on the streets in support of Clinton as the nominee as I have for Obama. That’s what this represents, at its core: the fact that a huge majority of the people are tired of the hate and misery of the GOP. Fortunately, we had people with the foresight to get the wheels rolling well in advance of the day – it’s been brilliant.

I can almost see the Sun rising....

hey to all.

t

parental discretion required

On our way back to The Hilltop earlier this evening we were sitting behind a Prius at a traffic light over on the Idylwood Dr. when a funny thing crossed my mind. After relaying this little nugget to X, I told her I’d consider it irony if I knew how to actually define irony. I have my own definition, as does Alanis Morrisette. The point was this; I remember when I was driving a Prius back in 2004 (they’d been out in America for about a year) and reading how all the ‘geniuses’ were badmouthing the car as some sort of Hollywood, liberal, people-I-couldn’t-care-less-about, statement. There was quite a waiting list for new vehicles (I bought a used one) and it wasn’t until about 2005/06 that Toyota managed to produce enough for the 'elite'. Just long enough to let Toby Keith and his gang of slackjaws settle down and get back to buying Hummers, SUVs, pick-up trucks, and anything else not needed by normal people. Just long enough to now laugh that American auto companies and consumers could have produced and bought more efficient cars. Throughout it all there was a continuous insinuation that people that chose to drive hybrids or economy cars – or chose to ride public transport…dear God! – were clearly intellectuals that didn’t wear American flag lapel pins or give a crap about the troops. Shit, we were probably sitting around drinking tea, eating tempeh, and watching Clooney movies. By the grace of God we will forever have cheap, subsidized gas so there’s no need to question my patriotism since I’m driving a big F350 Turbo Diesel.

Surprise, motherfu*&er! It ain’t free and it won’t last forever. The loudest hum of complaint and flow of tears are coming from Jethro, his dog, his girlfriend, and his DVD-equipped jumbo truck. I have no sympathy at all – zero. In fact, jack that price up as high as possible and let’s be done with it.

I’m bitter.

I don’t hate everyone, but it’s and ever-growing list.

t

things i hate

(Dan is exempt from reading this due to length and lack of focus - tcd)

“Drinking the Kool-Aid”

Do you remember the term “wilding”? I think it was newsworthy in the mid- to late- 1980s and used by various gangs running roughshod over New York City’s Central Park. I think it included mugging, robbing, assaulting, raping, and any other shitbag activity you can imagine being done in the name of losers. Maybe after twenty years we can step back a little and take the better attributes of wilding and somehow mangle it into our vernacular. Maybe we can use it when describing groups of folk getting together, supporting each other, and spending a crazy night out on the town. Maybe not.

Somehow we’ve become enamored of “Drinking the Kool-Aid” as both good and bad. I guess you have to be of a certain age to be able to pseudo-decrypt the meaning behind the phrase because I don’t think it came into use until years (decades?) after the event that’s the locus of its strength. The idea that anyone would say this about any other group or organization is eerie. Oftentimes, it’s thrown off quite casually when talking about a football team’s success, a company’s profits, or any other strong-willed group that has bought into a system. Sometimes it has a distinctly insulting connotation (“The Democrats have all drunk the Kool-Aid” quipped the Republican operative), but most of the time isn’t not nearly that overt. It’s become so horribly pervasive in American society. Maybe wilding wasn’t the best parallel. Maybe in ten years we can start saying that “the Republicans have gone all Koresh on us” as a perfectly acceptable way of saying that they’ve circled the wagons, locked the doors, and convinced everyone in their base that there’s a God-like figure gonna save ‘em – and they’ll use the guns just to make sure.

“It is what it is…”

If you’ve been in the military then this can be directly related to the “with all due respect” opening that might keep you from being court-martialed when you decide to tell a superior officer to kiss your ass. This has become the suffix appended, when challenged, to an insult or denial of any discontent. It sounds so sophomoric when you hear it coming from anyone over 15; hence my choice of definition. Imagine some confrontation with a co-worker who’s told everyone else at work that you’re a complete waste of time, money, air, cubical space, and sticky notes. You ask them about it in the hall and they say, “it is what it is.” I can almost picture that same person, ten years ago, making the “W” sign with their fingers and mumbling “Whatever, geez.” Of course, that same person, back then, probably had either a pierced tongue, a pierced nipple, or both. If you look closely you’ll be able to make out a tribal band tattoo on their upper arm. It’s all inane chatter substituting for actual thought. Hey, it is what it is…

“Throwing someone under the bus”

Wikipedia reports that a variant of this junk might have first been uttered by Cyndi Lauper in the 1980s. I hate this little riposte. I can’t even frame it in my mind – how many people ride buses and how many of those would actually throw someone under (maybe in front of?) the bus? I would think that throwing someone on the tracks or in front of the train would be a better option. Either way, this has become so pervasive that it’s more of an irritation factor than anything else; kind of like Richard Marx songs. The interesting bit about its usage is that it can be used by the person guilty of such behavior or by anyone attempting to pitch scorn on the person guilty of throwing someone under the bus. From what I see around these parts, the buses are always moving slowly in traffic or stopping all the time. Unless you’re going to drag someone kicking-and-screaming out to one of the expressways that provide access for express buses than I’m pretty sure the driver will have plenty of time to stop and yell at your target for laying in the damn road.

“Presumptive nominee”

When the hell did this become a life in being? I think Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, are asking the same question. According to my trusty compact Oxford English Dictionary, presumptive means “presumed in the absence of further information.” Are we to assume (presume?) that there’s some information we don’t know about the nominees? Are we really so pessimistic that we feel the need to assume that one or the other has something so heinous in his closet that he might have to drop out of the race? I’m going to guess that the idea behind this turn of phrase came from the politicos of both parties who decided it would be best to use it as an indication of just how much they hate their own nominee; and as a way to de-legitimize them. I think the Republican base first attached it to McCain and the Dems simply followed suit. Everyone can chant it over and over in hopes that something happens and either the right-wing or left-wing crazies can eventually say they told us so. I have begun using it to indicate mystery and pessimism around our dinner plans. The other night X asked about my dinner plans and I told her that the presumptive menu included fresh Maine lobster, beluga caviar, a light frisee salad rinsed by “Holly Hunter’s tears” [© Patton Oswalt], and a bottle of 1969 Grand Vin De Chataeu LaTour. Of course, when I got home that night I realized I could neither afford Holly Hunter’s tears nor the ’69 LaTour. We had cold soup and slices of processed American cheese. I told her it was presumptive.

t

dinner and the date

I’ve given up on the self-imposed current events and politics blackout. I think I deserve some credit 15 days time served. I fired off an e-mail to a friend this morning concerning Obama and the presidential election and that seems to have busted the dam wide open. I bought the Sunday Times when I got to Reagan for my USO shift this afternoon and walked to my desk with a renewed sense of getting back into the game. Even though I didn’t make the goal, it was a welcome break from the ranting and raving about the blogs and news sites.

On the Metro this morning I spied a passenger wearing a “Club Sandwiches Not Seals” t-shirt. Though a creative logo, it’s not quite subtle enough to get me to chuckle. It made me realize just how fine the line is between subversive and merely catchy.

The Eleven hosted a dinner party for ten last night – our first in the larger ballroom space. Actually, we were hosting for Amy and her friends. The day finally evolved from cleaning and cooking to relaxing at exactly 5pm. Our timing couldn’t have been better as that was the planned arrival time and a few showed up smartly at 5. Dinner kicked off at about 6:30 and everyone appeared happy and well-fed by the time they headed home at 8:30. The old apartment’s dining room (for those that never saw it) housed the 6-person table with one short end against the window; the room was too small to squeeze even six in comfortably. The Hilltop has so much open space that we are able to set the table together with and the dark wood sewing table and very comfortably seat all ten; and there’s still loads of room for people to wander about or dance the tango. We like it.

The last two days of the U.S. Open have been amazing. Tiger turned a 30 on the back nine on Friday and then wrapped yesterday’s back nine with two eagles and a birdie. The doubling over in pain after any number of shots – and the scrambles to recover – may be too much for his final round today. I would love to see him win but I just can’t see 30- and 60-foot putts rolling in and chip shots dropping the cup. Of course, if he can get to the greens without too much damage he may be okay but that’s a tall order. There’s absolutely no good reason to believe he won’t tough it out and win but if I had to bet a paycheck, I’d take the field. The week has already been his most amazing golf performance regardless of today’s outcome.

t

p.s. that isn't our table up above. Ours was a bit more random.

a farewell to arms

It's the 31st of May and I'm sticking to the promise I made, to myself, about staying away from current events for the whole of June. As the month comes to an end we've got the DNC meeting here in D.C. to decide the fates of Florida and Michigan. It appears they'll seat everyone and give them each half-a-vote. It the only truly compromised solution they could land upon. The facts are, they shouldn't have seated any of them. End of story. In order to appease Clinton they've done the best they can without actually affecting the race.

The lessons learned are pretty clear: Obama was naive to imagine that everyone would play by agreed-to rules. This will be something he'll carry with him through the remainder of his career. As for Clinton, she's now violating her word and there isn't anything worse you can do in politics. (Case in point: I don't actually care that Bill Clinton got involved with Monica; he pissed me off when he lied.) I fear she's forever damaging her place in the Senate and any future political leadership position. It's unfortunate because I really believe she is one of few in the Senate that could influence the chamber over the next twenty years. She may well lose any good will she's established in her eight years. 

Whatever the outcome, and I'm sure I'll catch it as I walk by newspaper machines, I'll vote for whomever the Democrats nominate.

The Cubs came back from 9-1 yesterday to win 10-9. They won their sixth straight today and are on a six-game streak. Those two sentences make me so much more relaxed than politics.

Expect tales from the Hilltop, sports, music, and crazy yarns of mass transit.