emperors IV

Hmm. Where to begin? They make it seem as if the 1st quarter fund-raising numbers are the most important thing since the idea of voting rights. Two nuggets to keep in mind, and they are all we need to know so we can stop listening or caring about the dollars: Mitt Romney raised something like $20+ million and is standing at single digits in the polling numbers for the nomination; Hillary led the money derby and is rapidly losing ground. Money does not equal success, especially with at least a million days before anything really matters. It will keep you running in the race but it won’t directly translate to success.

Fred Thompson is not in the race and he’s around 15% in a lot of the polls. The Republicans are just a wee bit dysfunctional right now.

Tommy Thompson is in the race. Did you know that? Maybe he’s banking on garnering the “Thompson” vote if people get confused – it could happen. His voter recognition is actually nil.

I’m very confused on what to do with the numbers. I still don’t think Giuliani can win the nomination regardless of what the polls say: he has absolutely nothing that the Republican base wants. McCain is slipping more each week. As far as his leadership is concerned, I’m very worried. In a front page article in the Sunday NYTimes he says that he has no “Plan B” for Iraq. What? If the current plan is all he can possibly envision, then he’s done. Romney is dead in the water even with all that dough. We’ve got one Thompson but not the other. I’m lowering my available poll points by half and only running the numbers to 50% total until someone steps up (or in) and takes charge.

The Dems are boring me. Hillary is clinging by her fingernails to Obama’s suit. It’s clear that the Dem voters never were on board with her and she’s got little chance of holding on much longer – though she’ll run through the primaries. I suspect the real mudslinging by her campaign will kickoff in full force by Memorial Day. Richardson had some press while he was in N. Korea a few weeks back but he’s still taking this campaign slow and steady. He’s still my guy. Edwards got some traction a few weeks ago but is spending more time with photo ops than actual campaigning. I still don’t see him going on much longer and my numbers reflect that.

There was a letter to Andrew Sullivan’s blog a few months back that outlined an idea (and it was very well put) that Jeb Bush might just hold out, let the candidates kill each other or implode, and step in late to scoop the nomination with very little long-term review of his politics. Name recognition and money – doesn’t sound so crazy right now.

Democrats	My Vote	The Nation
Clinton	25	30
Obama	33	30
Richardson	40	10
Edwards	2	15
Dodd	0	2
Biden	0	3
Kucinich	0	1

'Publicans	My Vote	The Nation
McCain	20	40
Giuliani	15	30
Romney	5	10
Brownback	0	0
Hunter	0	0
Thompson (either)	10	20

Unless something very intriguing happens in the next few weeks I'm dropping Kucinich, Dodd, Biden, Hunter, and Brownback from the numbers. I apologize (?) for never including Huckabee's candidacy; it wasn't that I didn't know, I just didn't care.

T.

call me 'tender'

There are nine Democrats declared and heading to the gate for the 2008 presidential nomination. From what I can tell there are six Republicans officially in the paddock getting settled. What to do? I’ve decided to spend two entries a month, one per party, updating each race – beginning in March. Prior to that I’m going to so some gathering, the unofficial-Google©-Wikipedia©-news media, blogosphere gathering, about each candidate’s political background and history in public life. I’ll include the gaffes along with the serious concerns and issues. No one is immune. In March I’ll have the starting positions aligned and we’ll get rolling. I’m shooting for four quick-hit profiles a week so we’ll be set to go by March – this’ll be fun. Here’s the opening day roster of candidates:

The 9 Dems

Senator Joe Biden (Del.)
Senator Hillary Clinton (N.Y.)
Senator Christopher Dodd (Conn.)
Former Senator John Edwards (N.C.)
Former Senator Mike Gravel (Alaska)
Representative Dennis Kucinich (Ohio)
Senator Barrack Obama (Ill.)
Governor Bill Richardson (N.M.)
Former Governor Tom Vilsack (Iowa)

The 6 Pubs

Senator Sam Brownback (Kan.)
John Cox of Illinois
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (N.Y.C.)
Representative Duncan Hunter (Ca.)
Senator John McCain (Ariz.)
Former Governor Mitt Romney (Mass.)

The first primary/caucus is scheduled for Iowa on January 14th, 2008 although the N'Hamps are up in arms about some state law on primary dates. My first bold predication is that of the 15 on this list only 8 will make it to Labor Day. Of course, some additional candidates will heave themselves into race, but only 8 of these will need to get out their dark shoes in September. Stand by for the quick profiles on Biden, Edwards, and Brownback.

Here are the selling points that these folks need to address if I’m going to walk out of the dealership with the fully-loaded Escalade©. Of course, by addressing these issues I mean actually stating a position – and I also want you to stop pointing with your goddamned thumbs!

1. International Affairs – restore America’s place as a leader, not THE leader, in world affairs. This means:

Establishing stability in Iraq and managing an acceptable solution to end our military involvement. I don’t believe there is a military solution at this juncture but I do believe that things like getting the power on, the water running, and the establishing of order are the most effective steps we can make.

Get off the bench, step forward, and show that any genocide, in any country, on any continent, will be stopped. No government should be shamed into action. If anyone needs background see Srebrenica and Rwanda, it is right there, and it’s awful. To read a statement that “until X number of people are killed in a ratio to the potential loss of one American life before we step in…” is grotesque.

Stop questioning global warming and the effects. We cannot continue to question the science…stop.

Instead of fighting the UN, make it better.

Pay our bills.

2. Domestic Affairs – restore any semblance of a government concerned with issues that really are issues.

Eliminate the tax cuts implemented for the wealthiest. Either cut them all or start at bottom and work your way up.

Someone owes us $1 trillion for the Iraq war. I’m not suggesting that somehow a check will arrive, but we have spent $1 trillion AND cut taxes. What kind of sacrifice (read: jackassery) is this?

Keep religion and public programs separate (I know that seems obvious). This includes: abortion, gay rights, and any other hot-button issue that can be driven by religious beliefs. Make a sound argument that doesn’t involve any quotes from any religious tome and I’ll be very happy to listen. We are NOT debating religion (you can keep yours), we are debating people’s lives in the here and now. Period.

Pay for education. That $1 trillion could have built and funded something like 40,000 schools and staff. Imagine that?

Be honest and fix health care. It can be done. It will be painful. If you’re honest and let us know that it’ll be difficult yet the end result will make our children’s lives better, we’ll do it.

Don’t think we’re so stupid.

Fire people. It’s life.

Other stuff? I was listening to George Karl (coach of the NBA’s Denver Nuggets) on ESPN’s PTI podcast the other morning and he kept referring to his two star players (Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson) as ‘Melo and AI. I know that those are noms de guerre for both stars but it sounds SO cheesy coming from a head coach in a position of authority. It reminded me of a Cedric the Entertainer bit when he said some kid told him, as he was walking away, to just call him ‘Delicious’. Cedric’s reply was; “I'm a grown-ass man, dawg. I ain't gonna call no other dude ‘Delicious’”. What if that [dude] way down the street or summin? 'DELICIOUS'!!! Ay, D, hol' up!". I think Coach Karl can just call them Allen and Carmelo. ‘Melo? That really is a stupid nickname. I don’t think I would even refer to Shaq as Shaq if I were his coach. Shaquille is much better coming from what dude-in-charge. I don’t have a nickname, if you must know, because any nickname for me would be stupid. I don’t even like the NBA.

I finished East of Eden and have moved onto The Shipping News by Annie Proulx. I’m looking to move up on the hierarchy of Proulx scholars. Eden review forthcoming.

Peace.