emperors VI

Ah, to know you're wrong; and to change. This will be so much easier now.

I know it’s politics and straight answers are impossible to come by these days. I know the debates have been an absolute joke so far, and I blame both the moderators (raise your hand if…, Wolf Blitzer is a caricature of a caricature...though at least the candidates can't speak) and the candidates (for stupid answers). Let’s get this sorted out before the Fourth of July. Based on the crappy performances across the board so far, combined with some basic knowledge of the players, there are only three running right now that could actually win the general election. I know just how crazy this sounds when we look at the polls, but bear with me on this one. The primaries and campaign season will be arduous, there will be turnings of the polls, different leaders and different chasers, but in the end there are only a few that can win the presidency: Ron Paul, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. I don’t believe for a minute that these are the best candidates out there but they are the only three that can win. (Yes, if you must know; a neo-conservative or panderer can’t win.) I’ll guess that the first screaming input is that Ron Paul will never win the Republican nomination; fine. I’ve got no crystal ball that tells me he will, but remember this: McCain, Romney, or Giuliani cannot win a general election. The country is sitting in moderate territory and none of those three can do enough to get the majority – their own party isn’t even happy with any of them. It looks more and more as if Obama will get the Democratic nomination and if that comes to fruition, and he runs off against any of the three front-running Republicans, he’ll win. John Edwards, who I owe an apology for thinking he wouldn’t make it to the primaries, would also defeat the three front runners. I don’t believe Clinton can win general election. As a late sidenote - there's reporting that Paul has raised as much as McCain over the second quarter. The power of the internet and swell of Paul supporters, even among the Dems, will be a seminal moment in American politics.

Where does this leave us? Everyone is waiting on the three names hanging over the campaign trail like some sword of Damocles: Thompson, Hagel, and Gore. Here’s how I see the effects:

Thompson will really screw up the Republican polling numbers and we’ll end up with four front runners all polling between 15-20%. Voters will soon determine that the Thompson gale existed only because no other viable candidate was in the race – Thompson will become the fourth unviable candidate.

Hagel will benefit as the only major anti-Iraq candidate on the trail and he will attract a ton of attention and a modicum of voters. What he represents is someone who breaks the “double Guantanamo” and “torture everyone” talk and opens the public's eyes to himself and Ron Paul. I think that two candidates giving some straight talk will make it much more interesting.

I don’t think Gore will run. But if he does I think he’ll hit Clinton’s numbers very hard. A lot of Dems and centrists would love to have Bill Clinton back, and I think some of that desire has been transferred to Hillary, yet Gore probably most closely represents the Bill Clinton ideal.

So what happens? Who are the nominees? What about running mates? Ah, those are the mysteries. I think one of the big three will be the Republican nominee so, ipso facto, we’ll have a Democrat moving into the White House in 2009. What happens between now and the full primary season is anyone’s guess. Who ends up as running mates is even more interesting (Gore, Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Hagel, Thompson, Schwarzenegger?). The joy…

Another beautiful Sunday.

Love to all.

T.