don't leave the pizza bones* behind!

There’s been talk about how some candidates (Hillary?) are running for the general election already and not necessarily for the party’s nomination (hence her refusal to blame herself for her war vote so she can better compete with McCain in November). It appears as if both Romney and McCain are swapping line-ups at the free agency deadline hoping to not only get the nomination but put a lock-down freeze on the right-wing vote. I happen to believe that Republicans at-large think they’ll win the general election in 2008. For those on the left who so hate this administration, you need to get over the idea that the 2008 election will be any indictment of the Republican Party. That ‘indictment’ vote already happened last November and the case was against the Bush/Cheney administration and their incompetent leadership. Being as the whole gang will be gone and forgotten by then, any inkling that the country will continue to vote down those candidates with a “R” after their name is wishful thinking.

It’s easy to see how McCain, Romney, and Guiliani are fighting for the heart of the right-wing vote; yet, Hillary, Obama, and Edwards are fighting over the center of the American population. I think the nation, by and large, is to the right of center on the political spectrum, and those voters that are teetering near the fulcrum will more than likely fall to the right come the general election. By that logic it seems to make sense that the Dems are working over that group – but it’s a fool’s bet. Politicians have to be damn sure they have the “base” of their voters; that area that's covering 30% on either end of the political spectrum. Those who reside in the middle 40% will wait until the pre-game show is over and won’t start paying attention until well into next Spring.

(Alert. Alert. Weird math coming.)

If party nominees haven’t secured the 30% that represents their portion of the political rainbow then any hope of winning a general election disappears. For every percent you don’t lockdown you’ll have to make-up at a rate of at least a 2-to-1 in that middle 40%. Let’s say McCain and his pandering to the right means he’s got that 30% in the books. Let’s also say that Hillary only managed to secure 25% of the left. My math tells me that of those middle 40%, Hillary will have to carry 6 to 7 of every 10 of those middle voters. If you believe, like I do, that the country leans right – then she’d need more like 8 of 10. That won’t happen…ever. Not for any of the Dems.

(Alert. Alert. End of weird math.)

What do the Dems do now? The left won’t stand for any candidate the refuses to get in line with the realities of the day. If one of the runners wants to secure the folks on the left of the dial then they’ll have to be firm on this war on terror. Edwards has made some bold statements but he ran on a ticket in 2004 that refused to say or recognize what was then a clear mistake. Hillary is just set on foisting the blame on someone else – there’s no way she could have made a mistake. Obama gets a free ride because he wasn’t actually there and making any decision. None of them have anything to lose by coming out and calling it all a disaster and putting forth an aggressive plan to put an end to the circus. It won’t hurt come the general election because most of the country wants it to end so the politicos will be able to live with ‘fessing up to their own shortfalls. The campaign needs to be a strong effort to unite the left behind one candidate: it’ll be a tough road, I expect it to get ugly, but someone’s got to win and lose. If you win the nomination you better make sure that you fully carry that 30% into November.

I have spoken.

*pizza bones